This year’s Oscar winner predictions

It’s been a very bumpy road to this year’s Oscars, but here we finally are! All 24 categories are set to be aired after The Academy caved to popular pressure, and the slate of nominations is teeming with talented filmmakers, actors, writers and editors.

Ahead of the final show, we share our predictions on who will take home those precious golden statuettes.

Best Picture:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

This is probably the most wide-open category, with a staggering number of incredible contenders. Though the tightest struggle is probably between The Favourite and Roma, my bet is on Roma taking Best Picture. It’d be the first non-English language film ever to win Best Picture, and despite the fact it’s a predictable winner, it does have an important message to contribute to the current anti-immigration political climate. The Favourite winning this one would be a pleasant surprise, however.

Photo by Carlos Somonte

Actor in a Leading Role:

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Again, perhaps a predictable choice given that this award has gone to an actor starring in a biopic eleven times in the last sixteen years, it’s very likely (and deserved) that Rami Malek will take this one home. Let’s just hope that Malek, who’s avoided speaking on the allegations against Bryan Singer, might take this chance on stage to speak out for the victims.

© 2018 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

As much as I think Olivia Colman should win for her fantastic performance as Queen Anne, the odds as in Glenn Close’s favour. Having already won a Golden Globe and a Critic’s Choice for her role in The Wife, and being her seventh Oscar nomination, she is clearly overdue for a win. I personally hope to be proven wrong on this one.

Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics

Actor in a Supporting Role  

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

This one’s a tie between Mahershala Ali or Richard E. Grant. Though both deserve to win, I think it’s unlikely that The Academy voters will give Ali a second Best Supporting Actor award in such quick succession (he won it for Moonlight in 2017). Although he has already scored a BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice and SAG Award for his performance in Green Book, my bet on Supporting Actor lies with Richard E. Grant. It would be a surprise win for sure, but a deserved one for his joyous and complex performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Photo by Mary Cybulski – © 2018 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation All Rights Reserved

Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Regina King should and will win Best Supporting Actress. Particularly with Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk having been snubbed out of many categories, King is an obvious choice to win for her incredibly delicate and charismatic performance.

Courtesy of Annapurna Pictures

Directing

BlacKkKlansman, Spike Lee

Cold War, Paweł Pawlikowski

The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos

Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

Vice, Adam McKay

My heart is torn on this one, with both Spike Lee and Alfonso Cuarón deserving the award. And although Spike Lee is long overdue to have his work recognised by the Academy Awards (bar the Honorary Award), all signs point to Cuarón walking away with this one. Keep reading though, because I don’t think that Lee will be going home empty-handed either.

Photo by Carlos Somonte

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee

Can You Ever Forgive Me? Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins

A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters

BlacKkKlansman is set to take win this one. It’s the easiest way that the Academy’s voter can honour Spike Lee’s long and socially impactful career. It might not be Best Director or Best Picture, but it would nonetheless be a competitive and long-overdue Oscar win for Lee.

© 2018 Focus Features LLC. All rights reserved

Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

First Reformed, Paul Schrader

Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly

Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

Vice, Adam McKay

The Favourite was such an incredible, funny, unexpected and unforgettable film that it has to be honoured with Best Original Screenplay, failing winning Best Picture. The screenplay’s barbed wit makes the film, as opposed to Roma which relies more on the visual. Further, a win for Green Book, which would otherwise have been anticipated (though undeserved when pitted against The Favourite) seems exceedingly unlikely since it surfaced that Vallelonga had tweeted in support of Trump’s claims that Muslims in New Jersey had cheered 9/11.

Courtesy of Fox Searchlight Pictures

And now a quick round-up of the remaining categories… Here are the predictions.

Cinematography: Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

Costume Design: The Favourite, Sandy Powell

Film Editing: Vice, Hank Corwin

Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice, Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney

Music (Original Score): Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson

Music (Original Song): ‘Shallow’ from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt

Production Design: The Favourite, Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas

Sound Editing: A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl

Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, and John Casali

Visual Effects: First Man, Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm

Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, and Christopher Miller

Foreign Language Film: Cold War, Poland

Documentary (Feature): Free Solo, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, and Shannon Dill

Documentary (Short Subject): Black Sheep, Ed Perkins and Jonathan Chinn

Short Film (Animated): Bao, Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb

Short Film (Live Action): Margherite, Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset

Laura Potier

Co-founder and editor of Outtake, feel free to drop me a line with any questions or article pitches at laura@outtakemag.co.uk